Editor's Note
In China's investment community, Dan Bin has always been a figure at the center of public discourse. He rose to fame for his concentrated bet on Kweichow Moutai. Over his 34-year career, spanning from the baijiu sector to his precise capture of the global AI technology wave, his investment philosophy has continuously evolved amid change and constancy. In this issue of "Capital Connections", we conduct an in-depth analysis and re-examination of his core investment philosophy through direct conversations with Dan Bin.
I. Adapting to Change: The Strategic Shift from Baijiu to AI
Dan Bin re-emphasized: "Investment must adapt to change." He conducted a thorough review of the logic behind his portfolio reallocation from traditional consumer sectors to global technology leaders, frankly acknowledging that the baijiu industry is facing fundamental challenges posed by demographic shifts. "Our team has more than 30 people. In the past, we could drink 15 bottles of baijiu after a basketball game; now no one even touches 2 bottles. If the demographic trend does not reverse, baijiu and indeed all industries will face enormous challenges."
After the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, Dan Bin acutely realized that "this may mark the official beginning of a new era." He stated bluntly: "We are unwilling to repeat the regrets of our youth, so we are going all in." In his view, this is the start of an intelligent era comparable to the Industrial Revolution, and the greatest regret in an investment career is to fail to live up to such a great era.
He described this transformation as his "second entrepreneurial journey" — no longer clinging to traditions, but embracing technological change with a broader vision.
II. The AI Revolution: A Super Industry Opportunity Spanning a Decade or More
Dan Bin's judgment on AI has been one of the most definitive yet controversial core viewpoints in recent years.
AI will deliver a decade-long bull market; missing the era is the greatest risk. He believes that once the AI industry trend begins, it will last for at least a decade. "AI will definitely be a decade-long bull market. The risk of missing the era is far greater than the risk you worry about. If there is a small AI stock market crash this year, I think you just need to hold on." In his view, current market discussions about an AI bubble are all "noise", and missing the era is the real risk to guard against.
We are still on day one of the AI explosion. Dan Bin compared the AI revolution to "the Watt steam engine moment", judging that we are merely at the very beginning of the AI explosion. He cited Tencent as an example — it went public in 2004, already in the mid-to-late stage of the internet era, yet still delivered returns of 600-700 times. Warren Buffett invested in Apple in 2016, also in the mid-to-late stage of the mobile internet era, and still earned tenfold returns. Therefore, "most people have not really started using AI yet, and we are still at the starting point of a long cycle."
2026 may become the year of explosive AI applications. He analyzed that 2025 will be the year when artificial intelligence transitions from its initial stage to vigorous growth, while 2026 "is likely to become a year of explosive growth for AI applications, with thousands of innovations emerging one after another." The infrastructure layer and application layer will advance by leaps and bounds and drive each other, far from reaching the point of oversupply or bubble formation.
Regional conflicts are merely minor interruptions in the main uptrend. Facing external disturbances such as tensions in the Middle East, Dan Bin remained calm: "The impact of regional geopolitical conflicts on capital markets is often phased and does not change the long-term operating trends of major assets. The recent stock market panic caused by the US-Iran situation is also an investment opportunity. Investors can consider using the pullback to add positions to leading enterprises with long-term prospects and core competitiveness."
III. Portfolio Allocation in Action: Walking the Talk on All-In AI
Dan Bin is not only an advocate of his views but also a practitioner.
As of the end of Q3 2025, Oriental Harbor's overseas fund had a US stock holding size of $1.292 billion (approximately 9.2 billion yuan), mainly allocated around three directions: "AI technology, computing power infrastructure, and AI applications". NVIDIA ranked as the top holding with a market value of $236 million. By Q4 2025, Dan Bin further strengthened his AI layout, significantly increasing his position in Google to become the top holding, with a market value of approximately $406 million, accounting for about 31% of the total US stock holdings, an increase of more than 40% from Q3. Although NVIDIA dropped to the second largest holding, it remained a core allocation, accounting for about 18%. In addition, he amplified his risk exposure to the technology sector through instruments such as the 2x leveraged Google ETF and 3x leveraged Nasdaq ETF.
Dan Bin said: "We believe that our portfolio is itself a description of the world. It reflects how we see the world and how we bet on the future."
In terms of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, Dan Bin is equally firmly optimistic about the AI industrial chain — sectors such as optical modules and printed circuit boards (PCBs) will continue to benefit. "Oriental Harbor also allocates high-quality companies in the AI industrial chain on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, not just US stocks."
IV. Three Core Investment Principles: Focus on the Principal Contradiction
First principle: Focus on the principal contradiction. "Investment decisions must focus on the principal contradiction and avoid being distracted by secondary factors. The market is full of noise — short-term data fluctuations, policy adjustments, unexpected events, etc. These factors may affect market sentiment, but often do not change the long-term drivers of corporate value."
Second principle: Invest in companies that change the world. His investment focus has always been on two types of companies: first, companies that change the world through innovation, and second, companies with deep moats that are not easily shaken by external changes. Dan Bin emphasized that the main driving force behind global wealth growth comes from technological progress, and the main channel of investment should be in the field of technological innovation.
Third principle: Focus on asset-light, high-profit platform enterprises. Such enterprises can obtain high profits with relatively light asset investment, and the probability of loss is extremely low when the underlying logic is correct. He vividly summarized: "The starting point of investment is to buy high-quality enterprises at reasonable prices based on thorough research, and then feel regret whenever you sell — because the enterprise continues to create value."
V. The Foundation of Investment Philosophy: Independent Thinking and Long-termism
Dan Bin's investment logic is not a passing whim, but is supported by a consistent philosophy.
Technological progress is the true engine of wealth creation. He repeatedly emphasized: "There is only one fundamental driver of wealth growth in human society, and that is technological progress." Devoting research energy to GPU iterations, model parameter sizes, and computing power demand is far more valuable than predicting the timing of the next interest rate cut.
Think independently and do not follow blindly. When talking about investment philosophy, Dan Bin said frankly: "We must think independently, not follow market noise blindly, and not deify any idol — including Warren Buffett. Learn Buffett's way of thinking about business models, moats, and competitive advantages, but do not copy every transaction he makes, otherwise you will fall into the mistake of carving the boat to find the sword."
In investing, hunt whales in the ocean, not dig for loaches in muddy ponds. He often uses this vivid metaphor. By comparing the long-term performance of the Japanese market at its peak in 1990 with the US market, he vividly illustrated the importance of global allocation.
VI. Facing Controversy: Maintain Focus and Steady Progress
Performance volatility and style shifts have kept Dan Bin at the center of market controversy. In Q1 2026, due to the pullback in US AI technology stocks, multiple products of Oriental Harbor experienced drawdowns. An article titled Dan Bin Does Not Know His Destiny was published, to which he responded calmly: "Investment is inherently about sailing through storms. Whether it is fate or destiny, only by sticking to your original heart and facing ups and downs directly can you achieve success in the end."
Facing the "AI bubble theory", he asked rhetorically: Does the very discussion of a bubble itself indicate that we are still far from a bubble? "When everyone in the market is talking about an AI bubble, we are probably still quite far from it. When no one talks about it anymore, that's when we need to be careful."
"But we are living through a great era, and investment should not fail to live up to a great era."
This sentence is perhaps the best footnote to his 34-year investment career. From a fitter at Kaifeng Fertilizer Factory to a chief writer at Junan Securities, from a staunch supporter of Moutai to a full embrace of the AI wave — Dan Bin's investment path has constantly changed, but his adherence to value, respect for the times, and practice of independent thinking have remained consistent.
As he has repeatedly emphasized: "Investment is a competition of foresight — those who see far, see accurately, dare to take concentrated positions, and can persist will succeed." This is perhaps the most precious foundation of value investing in every era of iteration.
